Know Your Numbers Before You Launch
5.5 million new business applications every year. 20% fail in year one. Spreadsheets give you a single break-even point -- we give you a probability distribution. Monte Carlo cash flow simulation, industry survival curves, and sensitivity analysis. Powered by BLS, Census, and IRS data.
Free basic estimate. No signup required. Data from BLS BED, Census BDS, IRS SOI, SBA.
Spreadsheets Lie About Your Break-Even
A spreadsheet gives you one number. Reality is a distribution. We model the uncertainty in revenue ramp, expense variance, and market conditions to give you honest probabilities -- not false precision.
Monte Carlo Cash Flow Engine
10,000 simulations varying revenue ramp rate, operating expense variance, customer acquisition cost, seasonal fluctuation, expense shocks, and SBA loan rates. Probability distributions, not guesses.
Industry Survival Curves
Weibull and exponential distributions fitted to BLS Business Employment Dynamics quarterly survival data by NAICS industry. 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival probabilities.
Break-Even Under Uncertainty
Not a single break-even point but a probability distribution. Median break-even month, 25th/75th percentile range, and probability of break-even within 12, 24, or 36 months.
Cash Runway Calculator
Given your initial capital, monthly burn rate distribution, and revenue ramp, we calculate P10, P50, and P90 runway in months -- and the probability of running out before break-even.
Sensitivity Tornado Chart
Which variable has the largest impact on your break-even and failure probability? Typically initial capital, monthly fixed costs, and revenue ramp rate. Know where to focus.
SBA Loan Scenario Modeler
Model SBA 7(a) and 504 loan scenarios with actual rate spreads, guarantee fees, and repayment terms. See how leverage affects your runway, break-even timing, and failure probability.
How It Works
Describe Your Business
Industry (NAICS), state, business structure, initial capital, employee count, revenue projections, and whether you need a physical location. Takes about 5 minutes.
We Run the Numbers
Monte Carlo cash flow simulation, industry survival curve fitting, break-even probability distribution, cash runway analysis, sensitivity tornado, and SBA loan scenarios.
See Your Viability Report
Survival probability, break-even timing with confidence intervals, runway in months (P10/P50/P90), failure probability, and which variables matter most to your success.
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Don't Sign the Lease Until You've Seen the Math
Enter your industry, capital, and cost structure. Get a complete viability analysis with survival probability, break-even timing, cash runway, sensitivity analysis, and SBA loan scenarios -- all backed by government data.
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