Industry Survival Curves
Weibull/exponential fitting of BLS BED quarterly survival data by NAICS industry.
Industry Survival Curves
We fit Weibull and exponential survival distributions to BLS Business Employment Dynamics quarterly survival rate data by 2-digit NAICS industry. This produces 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival probabilities adjusted for establishment size and state.
The survival curve provides the base rate against which your specific cash flow simulation is compared. A user with strong capitalization in a high-survival industry will see better outcomes than the base rate; undercapitalized ventures in high-failure industries will see worse.